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1.
J Intensive Med ; 4(1): 81-93, 2024 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38263964

RESUMEN

Background: The AbSeS-classification defines specific phenotypes of patients with intra-abdominal infection based on the (1) setting of infection onset (community-acquired, early onset, or late-onset hospital-acquired), (2) presence or absence of either localized or diffuse peritonitis, and (3) severity of disease expression (infection, sepsis, or septic shock). This classification system demonstrated reliable risk stratification in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with intra-abdominal infection. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of ICU patients with pancreatic infection and assess the relationship between the components of the AbSeS-classification and mortality. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of an international observational study ("AbSeS") investigating ICU patients with intra-abdominal infection. Only patients with pancreatic infection were included in this analysis (n=165). Mortality was defined as ICU mortality within 28 days of observation for patients discharged earlier from the ICU. Relationships with mortality were assessed using logistic regression analysis and reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: The overall mortality was 35.2% (n=58). The independent risk factors for mortality included older age (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.0 to 1.1 P=0.023), localized peritonitis (OR=4.4, 95% CI: 1.4 to 13.9 P=0.011), and persistent signs of inflammation at day 7 (OR=9.5, 95% CI: 3.8 to 23.9, P<0.001) or after the implementation of additional source control interventions within the first week (OR=4.0, 95% CI: 1.3 to 12.2, P=0.013). Gram-negative bacteria were most frequently isolated (n=58, 49.2%) without clinically relevant differences in microbial etiology between survivors and non-survivors. Conclusions: In pancreatic infection, a challenging source/damage control and ongoing pancreatic inflammation appear to be the strongest contributors to an unfavorable short-term outcome. In this limited series, essentials of the AbSeS-classification, such as the setting of infection onset, diffuse peritonitis, and severity of disease expression, were not associated with an increased mortality risk.ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT03270345.

2.
Intensive Crit Care Nurs ; 81: 103612, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38155049

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk factors for surgical site infections following cardiosurgery in an area endemic for multidrug resistant organisms. DESIGN: Single-center, historical cohort study including patients who underwent cardiosurgery during a 6-year period (2014-2020). SETTING: Joint Commission International accredited, multiorgan transplant center in Palermo, Italy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Surgical site infection was the main outcome. RESULTS: On a total of 3609 cardiosurgery patients, 184 developed surgical site infection (5.1 %). Intestinal colonization with multidrug resistant organisms was more frequent in patients with surgical site infections (69.6 % vs. 33.3 %; p < 0.001). About half of surgical site infections were caused by Gram-negative bacteria (n = 97; 52.7 %). Fifty surgical site infections were caused by multidrug resistant organisms (27.1 %), with extended-spectrum Beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales (n = 16; 8.7 %) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (n = 26; 14.1 %) being the predominant resistance problem. However, in only 24 of surgical site infections caused by multidrug resistant organisms (48 %), mostly carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (n = 22), a pathogen match between the rectal surveillance culture and surgical site infections clinical culture was demonstrated. Nevertheless, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified a rectal swab culture positive for multidrug resistant organisms as an independent risk factor for SSI (odds ratio 3.95, 95 % confidence interval 2.79-5.60). Other independent risk factors were female sex, chronic dialysis, diabetes mellitus, previous cardiosurgery, previous myocardial infarction, being overweight/obese, and longer intubation time. CONCLUSION: In an area endemic for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales, intestinal colonization with multidrug resistant organisms was recognized as independent risk factor for surgical site infections. IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE: No causal relationship between colonization with resistant pathogens and subsequent infection could be demonstrated. However, from a broader epidemiological perspective, having a positive multidrug resistant organisms colonization status appeared a risk factor for surgical site infections. Therefore, strict infection control measures to prevent cross-transmission remain pivotal (e.g., nasal decolonization, hand hygiene, and skin antisepsis).


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Infección Hospitalaria , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Infección de la Herida Quirúrgica/epidemiología , Infección de la Herida Quirúrgica/etiología , Infección de la Herida Quirúrgica/tratamiento farmacológico , Infección Hospitalaria/epidemiología , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Estudios de Cohortes , Factores de Riesgo , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Carbapenémicos , Antibacterianos/farmacología , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico
3.
Intensive Crit Care Nurs ; 77: 103421, 2023 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37001447

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Late-onset sepsis is a frequent complication in neonatal intensive care units. This study aims to understand the effect of late-onset sepsis on mortality in hospitalised neonatal patients across different gestational ages. DESIGN: This is a single-centre, historical cohort study including neonates admitted to hospital during a 10-year period (2002 - 2011). Neonates were stratified by gestational age: extremely preterm (<28 weeks), very preterm (28 to 32 weeks), late preterm (33 to 36 weeks), full term (>37 weeks). SETTING: Tertiary NICU in Ghent, Belgium. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Logistic regression analysis was used to assess adjusted relationships between late-onset sepsis and mortality, reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: A total of 4928 neonates were included, of which 2071 were term (42.0%), 1425 were late preterm (28.9%), 1165 very preterm (23.6%) and 264 were extremely preterm neonates (5.4%). 40 neonates developed late-onset sepsis (8.2 episodes/1000 patient days). Overall, in-hospital mortality was 5.4%. Late-onset sepsis was an independent risk factor for mortality in the total cohort (OR = 2.41; 95% CI = 1.46-3.96). However, when gestational age groups were considered separately, late-onset sepsis was associated with mortality in very preterm neonates (OR = 2.45; 95% CI = 1.03-5.84) and in the late preterm neonates (OR = 3.92; 95% CI = 1.41-10.87), but not in other neonates. Comorbidities burdening neonatal hospital survival include acute lung disease, brain damage, periventricular leukomalacia, surgery, and broncho-pulmonary dysplasia. CONCLUSION: Late-onset sepsis is an independent risk factor for mortality in very preterm and late preterm neonates. Understanding how late-onset sepsis among other factors impact mortality enables a patient and family-centred approach to nursing care including the anticipation of realistic milestones. IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE: Late-onset sepsis is especially detrimental to preterm neonates and this could be taken into consideration by nurses when communicating with families in the perinatal period.


Asunto(s)
Recien Nacido Prematuro , Sepsis , Recién Nacido , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Edad Gestacional , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Neonatal , Estudios de Cohortes , Sepsis/complicaciones , Estudios Retrospectivos
4.
Eur J Clin Nutr ; 77(6): 692-697, 2023 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36922651

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the agreement between nurse and dietician nutritional risk assessments when using the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS2002) protocol, and to explore the relations of falsely labeling patients 'not at risk' for malnutrition and the screening time difference (STD) between nurse and dietician with the length of stay (LoS). METHODS: Included are all patients hospitalized in a tertiary care center between January 2017 and December 2019 and screened for malnutrition by both a nurse and a dietician. The inter-rater reliability is evaluated using Cohen's Kappa. The relation between STD and the patient classification (PCET) is assessed by a linear mixed effect model. The relation between the LoS and PCET is evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable Cox regression including STD with pathology group and severity of illness as random effect. RESULTS: 9085 patients are assessed by nurse and dietician. 72% of all assessments agree (Kappa = 0.44 [0.43-0.46]). The dietician is involved later for patients falsely labeled 'not at risk' (1.06 [0.92-1.20] days; p < 0.001). Compared to patients where the dietician is involved within 3 days, the LoS is 7.37 days (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.51 [0.43-0.61]) longer for patients falsely labeled 'not at risk', while only 3.51 days (HR: 0.72 [0.64-0.80]) longer for patients correctly labeled 'at risk'. CONCLUSIONS: Agreement of screening for malnutrition between nurses and dieticians is weak. Avoiding falsely labeling patients 'not at risk' should be a main concern upon patient admission as later involvement of dieticians is correlated with a longer LoS.


Asunto(s)
Desnutrición , Evaluación Nutricional , Humanos , Hospitalización , Tiempo de Internación , Desnutrición/diagnóstico , Estado Nutricional , Nutricionistas , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Centros de Atención Terciaria
5.
BMJ Open ; 12(11): e057010, 2022 11 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36418122

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Hospital-acquired pressure injuries (PIs) are a source of morbidity and mortality, and many are potentially preventable. DESIGN: This study prospectively evaluated the prevalence and the associated factors of PIs in adult critical care patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) in the UK. SETTING: This service evaluation was part of a larger, international, single-day point prevalence study of PIs in adult ICU patients. Training was provided to healthcare givers using an electronic platform to ensure standardised recognition and staging of PIs across all sites. PARTICIPANTS: The characteristics of the ICUs were recorded before the survey; deidentified patient data were collected using a case report form and uploaded onto a secure online platform. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Factors associated with ICU-acquired PIs in the UK were analysed descriptively and using mixed multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Data from 1312 adult patients admitted to 94 UK ICUs were collected. The proportion of individuals with at least one PI was 16% (211 out of 1312 patients), of whom 8.8% (n=115/1312) acquired one or more PIs in the ICU and 7.3% (n=96/1312) prior to ICU admission. The total number of PIs was 311, of which 148 (47.6%) were acquired in the ICU. The location of majority of these PIs was the sacral area, followed by the heels. Braden score and prior length of ICU stay were associated with PI development. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and the stage of severity of PIs were generally low in adult critically ill patients admitted to participating UK ICUs during the study period. However, PIs are a problem in an important minority of patients. Lower Braden score and longer length of ICU stay were associated with the development of injuries; most ICUs assess risk using tools which do not account for this. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03270345.


Asunto(s)
Cuidados Críticos , Enfermedad Crítica , Úlcera por Presión , Adulto , Humanos , Enfermedad Crítica/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crítica/terapia , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Prevalencia , Reino Unido/epidemiología
6.
Intensive Care Med ; 48(11): 1593-1606, 2022 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36151335

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: To describe data on epidemiology, microbiology, clinical characteristics and outcome of adult patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU) with secondary peritonitis, with special emphasis on antimicrobial therapy and source control. METHODS: Post hoc analysis of a multicenter observational study (Abdominal Sepsis Study, AbSeS) including 2621 adult ICU patients with intra-abdominal infection in 306 ICUs from 42 countries. Time-till-source control intervention was calculated as from time of diagnosis and classified into 'emergency' (< 2 h), 'urgent' (2-6 h), and 'delayed' (> 6 h). Relationships were assessed by logistic regression analysis and reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The cohort included 1077 cases of microbiologically confirmed secondary peritonitis. Mortality was 29.7%. The rate of appropriate empiric therapy showed no difference between survivors and non-survivors (66.4% vs. 61.3%, p = 0.1). A stepwise increase in mortality was observed with increasing Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (19.6% for a value ≤ 4-55.4% for a value > 12, p < 0.001). The highest odds of death were associated with septic shock (OR 3.08 [1.42-7.00]), late-onset hospital-acquired peritonitis (OR 1.71 [1.16-2.52]) and failed source control evidenced by persistent inflammation at day 7 (OR 5.71 [3.99-8.18]). Compared with 'emergency' source control intervention (< 2 h of diagnosis), 'urgent' source control was the only modifiable covariate associated with lower odds of mortality (OR 0.50 [0.34-0.73]). CONCLUSION: 'Urgent' and successful source control was associated with improved odds of survival. Appropriateness of empirical antimicrobial treatment did not significantly affect survival suggesting that source control is more determinative for outcome.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos , Infecciones Intraabdominales , Peritonitis , Sepsis , Adulto , Humanos , Enfermedad Crítica , Sepsis/complicaciones , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Factores de Riesgo , Antiinfecciosos/uso terapéutico , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Estudios Retrospectivos
7.
Intensive Crit Care Nurs ; 72: 103265, 2022 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35672212

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To assess variation in ICU length of stay between countries with varying patient-to-nurse ratios; to compare ICU length of stay of individual countries against an international benchmark. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the DecubICUs trial (performed on 15 May 2018). SETTING: The study cohort included 12,794 adult ICU patients (57 countries). Only countries with minimally twenty patients discharged (or deceased) within 30 days of ICU admission were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Multivariate Cox regression was used to evaluate ICU length of stay, censored at 30 days, across countries and for patient-to-nurse ratio, adjusted for sex, age, admission type and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II. The resulting hazard ratios for countries, indicating longer or shorter length of stay than average, were plotted on a forest plot. Results by country were benchmarked against the overall length of stay using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: Patients had a median ICU length of stay of 11 days (interquartile range, 4-27). Hazard ratio by country ranged from minimally 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.35-0.51) for Greece, to maximaly1.94 (1.28-2.93) for Lithuania. The hazard ratio for patient-to-nurse was 0.96 (0.94-0.98), indicating that higher patient-to-nurse ratio results in longer length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: Despite adjustment for case-mix, we observed significant heterogeneity of ICU length of stay in-between countries, and a significantly longer length of stay when patient-to-nurse ratio increases. Future studies determining underlying characteristics of individual ICUs and broader organisation of healthcare infrastructure within countries may further explain the observed heterogeneity in ICU length of stay.


Asunto(s)
Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Alta del Paciente , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Humanos , Tiempo de Internación , Estudios Retrospectivos
8.
Int J Antimicrob Agents ; 60(1): 106591, 2022 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35460850

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To describe epidemiology and age-related mortality in critically ill older adults with intra-abdominal infection. METHODS: A secondary analysis was undertaken of a prospective, multi-national, observational study (Abdominal Sepsis Study, ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT03270345) including patients with intra-abdominal infection from 309 intensive care units (ICUs) in 42 countries between January and December 2016. Mortality was considered as ICU mortality, with a minimum of 28 days of observation when patients were discharged earlier. Relationships with mortality were assessed by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The cohort included 2337 patients. Four age groups were defined: middle-aged patients [reference category; 40-59 years; n=659 (28.2%)], young-old patients [60-69 years; n=622 (26.6%)], middle-old patients [70-79 years; n=667 (28.5%)] and very old patients [≥80 years; n=389 (16.6%)]. Secondary peritonitis was the predominant infection (68.7%) and was equally prevalent across age groups. Mortality increased with age: 20.9% in middle-aged patients, 30.5% in young-old patients, 31.2% in middle-old patients, and 44.7% in very old patients (P<0.001). Compared with middle-aged patients, young-old age [odds ratio (OR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.17], middle-old age (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.35-2.41) and very old age (OR 3.69, 95% CI 2.66-5.12) were independently associated with mortality. Other independent risk factors for mortality included late-onset hospital-acquired intra-abdominal infection, diffuse peritonitis, sepsis/septic shock, source control failure, liver disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes and malnutrition. CONCLUSIONS: For ICU patients with intra-abdominal infection, age >60 years was associated with mortality; patients aged ≥80 years had the worst prognosis. Comorbidities and overall disease severity further compromised survival. As all of these factors are non-modifiable, it remains unclear how to improve outcomes.


Asunto(s)
Infección Hospitalaria , Infecciones Intraabdominales , Peritonitis , Sepsis , Choque Séptico , Adulto , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Enfermedad Crítica , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Infecciones Intraabdominales/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Adulto Joven
9.
Int J Nurs Stud ; 129: 104222, 2022 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35344836

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Pressure injuries are a frequent complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, especially in those with comorbid conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Yet no epidemiological data on pressure injuries in critically ill COPD patients are available. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of ICU-acquired pressure injuries in critically ill COPD patients and to investigate associations between COPD status, presence of ICU-acquired pressure injury, and mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from DecubICUs, a multinational one-day point-prevalence study of pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. We generated a propensity score summarizing risk for COPD and ICU-acquired pressure injury. The propensity score was used as matching criterion (1:1-ratio) to assess the proportion of ICU-acquired pressure injury attributable to COPD. The propensity score was then used in regression modeling assessing the association of COPD with risk of ICU-acquired pressure injury, and examining variables associated with mortality (Cox proportional-hazard regression). RESULTS: Of the 13,254 patients recruited to DecubICUs, 1663 (12.5%) had documented COPD. ICU-acquired pressure injury prevalence was higher in COPD patients: 22.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.2 to 24.2) vs. 15.3% (95% CI 14.7 to 16.0). COPD was independently associated with developing ICU-acquired pressure injury (odds ratio 1.40, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.61); the proportion attributable to COPD was 6.4% (95% CI 5.2 to 7.6). Compared with non-COPD patients without pressure injury, mortality was no different among patients without COPD but with pressure injury (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.17) or COPD patients without pressure injury (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.27). Mortality was higher among COPD patients with pressure injury (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.58). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Critically ill COPD patients have a statistically significant higher risk of pressure injury. Moreover, those that develop pressure injury are at higher risk of mortality. As such, pressure injury may serve as a surrogate for poor prognostic status to help clinicians identify patients at high risk of death. Also, delivery of interventions to prevent pressure injury are paramount in critically ill COPD patients. Further studies should determine if early intervention in critically ill COPD patients can modify development of pressure injury and improve prognosis.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad Crítica , Úlcera por Presión , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica , Adulto , Humanos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Puntaje de Propensión , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/complicaciones , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo
10.
Clin Nutr ESPEN ; 48: 386-392, 2022 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35331518

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite its negative impact on patients and health care expenditures, malnutrition remains an under-recognized problem in hospitals. The objectives were thus: 1) to study the prevalence of malnutrition risk, protein-calorie malnutrition and cachexia in a Belgian tertiary care hospital, 2) to evaluate the impact thereof on patient outcomes, and 3) to evaluate the impact of optimizing malnutrition screening, diagnosing, registration and coding on hospital reimbursement. METHODS: Data was included from all multi-day admissions between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2019. The NRS2002 was used as screening tool. Patient outcomes were modeled using (generalized) linear mixed models, with pathology and severity of illness as random effects. The financial impact of the screening, diagnosing and registration process was evaluated comparing net revenues related to a malnutrition diagnosis in the year before (2017) and the year after (2019) the optimization process. RESULTS: 55,345 patients were evaluated for malnutrition risk at admission of whom 23.6% are considered malnourished or at risk for malnutrition, 0.6% have cachexia and 4.6% protein-calorie malnutrition. Overall length of stay is 2.2 days (p < 0.001) longer in the at-risk population, and 6.2 and 5.0 days longer in patients with cachexia and protein-calorie malnutrition as compared to patients not at risk. Odds ratio for in-hospital mortality is 2.9 (p < 0.001) for the at-risk patients and 3.0 (p < 0.001) for patients with cachexia. Optimization of dietetic workflow and registration, specifying malnutrition severity and facilitating malnutrition coding can increase hospital reimbursement, with approximately 0.4% of all justified beds. CONCLUSIONS: Malnutrition still affects both patients and health care finances. Patients at risk for, or having malnutrition at admission have worse outcomes than those without. Importantly, hospital reimbursement for these patients can effectively be increased by implementing an automated nutritional screening and diagnosing protocol with optimized dietetic registration and enhanced nutritional coding.


Asunto(s)
Desnutrición , Evaluación Nutricional , Hospitales de Enseñanza , Humanos , Desnutrición/diagnóstico , Desnutrición/epidemiología , Estado Nutricional , Centros de Atención Terciaria
12.
Intensive Crit Care Nurs ; 68: 103117, 2022 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34393009

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors for pressure injury in distinct intensive care subpopulations according to admission type (Medical; Surgical elective; Surgery emergency; Trauma/Burns). METHODOLOGY/DESIGN: Predictive modelling using generalised linear mixed models with backward elimination on prospectively gathered data of 13 044 adult intensive care patients. SETTINGS: 1110 intensive care units, 89 countries worldwide. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pressure injury risk factors. RESULTS: A generalised linear mixed model including admission type outperformed a model without admission type (p = 0.004). Admission type Trauma/Burns was not withheld in the model and excluded from further analyses. For the other three admission types (Medical, Surgical elective, and Surgical emergency), backward elimination resulted in distinct prediction models with 23, 17, and 16 predictors, respectively, and five common predictors only. The Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve was 0.79 for Medical admissions; and 0.88 for both the Surgical elective and Surgical emergency models. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for pressure injury differ according to whether intensive care patients have been admitted for medical reasons, or elective or emergency surgery. Prediction models for pressure injury should target distinct subpopulations with differing pressure injury risk profiles. Type of intensive care admission is a simple and easily retrievable parameter to distinguish between such subgroups.


Asunto(s)
Cuidados Críticos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Úlcera por Presión , Adulto , Humanos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitalización , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Curva ROC
13.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 21(1): 468, 2021 May 18.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34006279

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Prediction of the necessary capacity of beds by ward type (e.g. ICU) is essential for planning purposes during epidemics, such as the COVID- 19 pandemic. The COVID- 19 taskforce within the Ghent University hospital made use of ten-day forecasts on the required number of beds for COVID- 19 patients across different wards. METHODS: The planning tool combined a Poisson model for the number of newly admitted patients on each day with a multistate model for the transitions of admitted patients to the different wards, discharge or death. These models were used to simulate the required capacity of beds by ward type over the next 10 days, along with worst-case and best-case bounds. RESULTS: Overall, the models resulted in good predictions of the required number of beds across different hospital wards. Short-term predictions were especially accurate as these are less sensitive to sudden changes in number of beds on a given ward (e.g. due to referrals). Code snippets and details on the set-up are provided to guide the reader to apply the planning tool on one's own hospital data. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to achieve a fast setup of a planning tool useful within the COVID- 19 pandemic, with a fair prediction on the needed capacity by ward type. This methodology can also be applied for other epidemics.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales , Hospitales Universitarios , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Pandemias/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Intensive Care Med ; 47(2): 160-169, 2021 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33034686

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. METHODS: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. RESULTS: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9-27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6-16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score < 19, ICU stay > 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2-1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4-1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3-3.3). CONCLUSION: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat.


Asunto(s)
Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Úlcera por Presión , Adulto , Anciano , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Alta del Paciente , Prevalencia , Respiración Artificial , Factores de Riesgo , Úlcera por Presión/epidemiología , Femenino
17.
PLoS One ; 15(6): e0235117, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32584872

RESUMEN

Early prediction of in-hospital mortality can improve patient outcome. Current prediction models for in-hospital mortality focus mainly on specific pathologies. Structured pathology data is hospital-wide readily available and is primarily used for e.g. financing purposes. We aim to build a predictive model at admission using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes as predictors and investigate the effect of the self-evident DNR ("Do Not Resuscitate") diagnosis codes and palliative care codes. We compare the models using ICD-10-CM codes with Risk of Mortality (RoM) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) as predictors using the Random Forests modeling approach. We use the Present on Admission flag to distinguish which diagnoses are present on admission. The study is performed in a single center (Ghent University Hospital) with the inclusion of 36 368 patients, all discharged in 2017. Our model at admission using ICD-10-CM codes (AUCROC = 0.9477) outperforms the model using RoM (AUCROC = 0.8797 and CCI (AUCROC = 0.7435). We confirmed that DNR and palliative care codes have a strong impact on the model resulting in a decrease of 7% for the ICD model (AUCROC = 0.8791) at admission. We therefore conclude that a model with a sufficient predictive performance can be derived from structured pathology data, and if real-time available, can serve as a prerequisite to develop a practical clinical decision support system for physicians.


Asunto(s)
Bases de Datos Factuales , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitalización , Modelos Biológicos , Cuidados Paliativos , Patología Clínica , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas
18.
Intensive Care Med ; 45(12): 1703-1717, 2019 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31664501

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: To describe the epidemiology of intra-abdominal infection in an international cohort of ICU patients according to a new system that classifies cases according to setting of infection acquisition (community-acquired, early onset hospital-acquired, and late-onset hospital-acquired), anatomical disruption (absent or present with localized or diffuse peritonitis), and severity of disease expression (infection, sepsis, and septic shock). METHODS: We performed a multicenter (n = 309), observational, epidemiological study including adult ICU patients diagnosed with intra-abdominal infection. Risk factors for mortality were assessed by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The cohort included 2621 patients. Setting of infection acquisition was community-acquired in 31.6%, early onset hospital-acquired in 25%, and late-onset hospital-acquired in 43.4% of patients. Overall prevalence of antimicrobial resistance was 26.3% and difficult-to-treat resistant Gram-negative bacteria 4.3%, with great variation according to geographic region. No difference in prevalence of antimicrobial resistance was observed according to setting of infection acquisition. Overall mortality was 29.1%. Independent risk factors for mortality included late-onset hospital-acquired infection, diffuse peritonitis, sepsis, septic shock, older age, malnutrition, liver failure, congestive heart failure, antimicrobial resistance (either methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, vancomycin-resistant enterococci, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Gram-negative bacteria, or carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria) and source control failure evidenced by either the need for surgical revision or persistent inflammation. CONCLUSION: This multinational, heterogeneous cohort of ICU patients with intra-abdominal infection revealed that setting of infection acquisition, anatomical disruption, and severity of disease expression are disease-specific phenotypic characteristics associated with outcome, irrespective of the type of infection. Antimicrobial resistance is equally common in community-acquired as in hospital-acquired infection.


Asunto(s)
Causas de Muerte , Enfermedad Crítica/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crítica/mortalidad , Infecciones Intraabdominales/epidemiología , Infecciones Intraabdominales/mortalidad , Sepsis/mortalidad , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Epidemiológicos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Sepsis/epidemiología
20.
Intensive Care Med ; 44(7): 1017-1026, 2018 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29744564

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Chlorhexidine oral care is widely used in critically and non-critically ill hospitalized patients to maintain oral health. We investigated the effect of chlorhexidine oral care on mortality in a general hospitalized population. METHODS: In this single-center, retrospective, hospital-wide, observational cohort study we included adult hospitalized patients (2012-2014). Mortality associated with chlorhexidine oral care was assessed by logistic regression analysis. A threshold cumulative dose of 300 mg served as a dichotomic proxy for chlorhexidine exposure. We adjusted for demographics, diagnostic category, and risk of mortality expressed in four categories (minor, moderate, major, and extreme). RESULTS: The study cohort included 82,274 patients of which 11,133 (14%) received chlorhexidine oral care. Low-level exposure to chlorhexidine oral care (≤ 300 mg) was associated with increased risk of death [odds ratio (OR) 2.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.32-2.92]. This association was stronger among patients with a lower risk of death: OR 5.50 (95% CI 4.51-6.71) with minor/moderate risk, OR 2.33 (95% CI 1.96-2.78) with a major risk, and a not significant OR 1.13 (95% CI 0.90-1.41) with an extreme risk of mortality. Similar observations were made for high-level exposure (> 300 mg). No harmful effect was observed in ventilated and non-ventilated ICU patients. Increased risk of death was observed in patients who did not receive mechanical ventilation and were not admitted to ICUs. The adjusted number of patients needed to be exposed to result in one additional fatality case was 47.1 (95% CI 45.2-49.1). CONCLUSIONS: These data argue against the indiscriminate widespread use of chlorhexidine oral care in hospitalized patients, in the absence of proven benefit in specific populations.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos Locales/administración & dosificación , Clorhexidina/análogos & derivados , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Higiene Bucal/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Clorhexidina/administración & dosificación , Enfermedad Crítica , Femenino , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Neumonía Asociada al Ventilador , Estudios Retrospectivos , Adulto Joven
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